Phyrex.Ni
Phyrex.Ni
No extravagance, no waste
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WTI closed at 102 dollars, and my current position has almost recovered, with the liquidation price readjusted back above 120 dollars. I want to remind friends shorting WTI or CLUSDT to be very cautious. The probability of trading news impacting the market is very high now; a short-term news event could cause a price spike. However, from a long-term perspective, I firmly believe WTI will definitely fall.
Today, the U.S. Energy Information Administration also released the latest information, suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz should be clear by the end of May 2026. This is mainly because beyond that time, global oil pressure will significantly increase, and Iran might face challenges not only from the U.S. I personally strongly support this assessment. Various signs now indicate that even China is urging Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Moreover, from today's CPI data release, it’s clear that U.S. inflation has not only surged sharply but also exceeded expectations. The market reacted poorly, dragging U.S. stocks down. This implies the Federal Reserve needs to reconsider rate cuts. Even if Waller successfully becomes Fed Chair, he cannot directly cut rates under these circumstances. Therefore, I always believe the upside for oil prices is limited, and the downside potential is greater.
The trouble is that shorting CLUSDT has a very high funding rate. Since opening the position last Sunday until now, my funding rate has exceeded 12%. I was just mentioning this yesterday, and it turned out I was right—today I’m facing a paper loss. Under these conditions, I don’t know how long I can maintain the short position.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, today’s pullback still synchronizes with U.S. stocks and is a lingering effect of the U.S. CPI surge. This is very normal. The continuous AI boom has made many investors overlook macroeconomic impacts. This CPI data might be a cold shower forcing investors to face the issue of rising oil prices again.
So, $BTC’s upcoming price movements are very likely still tied to the U.S.-Iran situation. Pressure on Trump has increased, and this visit to China is hoped to bring some positive results, especially hoping China can exert greater pressure on Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
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Phyrex.Ni
Today, WTI soared above $100, and there's no need to say that everyone should know what's happening. Not only have the negotiations between the US and Iran stalled again, but there are also signs of conflict between Iran and the UAE. Moreover, both Trump and the Iranian spokesperson have shown very strong irreconcilability. If I could still tolerate all of this, then the current funding rate is making me want to cry.
I was originally worried about high funding rates over the weekend, so I cleared most of my positions on Friday. Later, seeing that the weekend funding rate was indeed adjusted and oil prices were rising over the weekend, I reopened a position at $97.6. After just one day, the funding rate has deducted nearly 10%. Closing the position now is a good move; the profit is just a little. If I don't close it, I expect to see a loss on the books tomorrow.
Shorting oil is definitely the right move, but this funding rate is really hard to bear. I originally wanted to find a way to hedge the funding rate, but now looking at the main issue—funding rates rising sharply after US stock market closes—this period is short, and hedging conflicts completely with rest time, making it somewhat unprofitable. It's so frustrating it makes me want to vomit blood.
I wonder if friends at @binancezh could take a look. The weekend funding rate is acceptable now, but the funding rate after the US stock market closes each day is about double the rate at market open. It's killing me 😂.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, it still maintains good synchronization with the US stock market. Although the gains are not as strong as the stock market, it still doesn't contradict it. This shows that investors, while optimistic about the US stock market, also casually buy some $BTC. Moreover, recent data shows more and more BTC is gradually shifting to long-term holding, which helps alleviate the current selling pressure.
But essentially, the main market players for now are still the US and Iran. It's still the US inflation and recession expectations brought by the Strait of Hormuz, followed by US monetary policy, tariffs, and the midterm elections.
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On Monday, $ETH's data was similar to $BTC's. Although ETH experienced a net outflow, the outflow volume was very low. It's already good that ETH can keep up with Bitcoin, but looking at the exchange rate, it has been declining since April 14. This indicates that relative to BTC's gains, ETH has lagged behind, which is why more funds prefer to chase BTC.
#Bitget means VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Woke up to find it was already 2:30 AM 😂
Tonight, the US April CPI data was released, which forms a very strong contrast with the rapidly rising US stock market. In fact, the expectation of rising inflation has been mentioned almost daily, but the market hardly believes it, especially since AI is the current hot topic.
The broad inflation rate that people care most about was 3.3% last month, the market expected 3.7%, but the actual release was 3.8%.
The direct effect of rising inflation is that the Federal Reserve's assessment of rate cuts is further delayed. Simply put, rate cuts have become more difficult, and if inflation continues to rise, rate cuts might not happen even by 2026. This is not good news for the overall market, and even AI might stall in the face of high inflation.
The main reason for the inflation increase is the rise in energy inflation, primarily gasoline and fuel oil. This is what we've been talking about—the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz brings the most direct impact. Today, WTI prices have already returned to $102. If Trump can't solve the "oil" problem, nothing else matters.
And that's not all. The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, originally believed that rising inflation was due to tariffs. If Trump lowered or canceled tariffs, it would greatly help inflation. That's why Powell was previously optimistic about inflation. But now, with the long-standing unresolved issues between Iran and the US, the Fed probably needs to reassess inflation, especially since even with the Strait of Hormuz inflation, it will take some time for oil prices to fall back.
Overall, rising inflation is bad news for the entire risk market.
😂 Now that I watch X every day, I finally understand why everyone likes watching Douyin.
Phyrex
It's amazing that ByteDance has made so much money, but not a single cent has come from me. At least I haven't spent any time or money on ByteDance products; I hardly ever watch Douyin, have never watched any live streams, and have never tipped any streamer even a dime. I haven't bought anything from the Douyin mall.
I'm still quite old-fashioned; I'm not very interested in Douyin and short videos. I prefer reading books, watching complete movies and TV shows, and I like to get information from Twitter and industry reports. I enjoy verifying the sources of information. Short videos are fun, but they take up too much time.
Although each video seems short, I often find myself unable to stop watching. I always feel that Taobao, food delivery, and Douyin will slow down social progress, hinder economic development, and make people increasingly lazy.
The money earned through effort may not mainly depend on luck.
Without striving to improve one's understanding, although one can still make the right choices, luck might play a bigger role.
So personally, I think "effort" does not necessarily lead to "correct" "choices."
It is even possible that the harder you work, the further you go in the wrong direction.
But if there is no effort at all, no accumulation of your own understanding, then it is very likely purely a matter of luck.
This probability...
Phyrex.Ni
I believe the amount of money a person can earn through hard work is limited.
What can expand limited money infinitely is cognition.
And what can preserve infinitely large money is luck.
Luck itself is a kind of choice.
For example:
If you have 10,000 BTC when $BTC is at 10 dollars, first you need to have earned 100,000 dollars through hard work.
When Bitcoin rises to 1,000 dollars and you haven't sold any, that is your cognition.
And when Bitcoin rises to 100,000 dollars and you have never sold even one, I think that is your luck.
Today, WTI soared above $100, and there's no need to say that everyone should know what's happening. Not only have the negotiations between the US and Iran stalled again, but there are also signs of conflict between Iran and the UAE. Moreover, both Trump and the Iranian spokesperson have shown very strong irreconcilability. If I could still tolerate all of this, then the current funding rate is making me want to cry.
I was originally worried about high funding rates over the weekend, so I cleared most of my positions on Friday. Later, seeing that the weekend funding rate was indeed adjusted and oil prices were rising over the weekend, I reopened a position at $97.6. After just one day, the funding rate has deducted nearly 10%. Closing the position now is a good move; the profit is just a little. If I don't close it, I expect to see a loss on the books tomorrow.
Shorting oil is definitely the right move, but this funding rate is really hard to bear. I originally wanted to find a way to hedge the funding rate, but now looking at the main issue—funding rates rising sharply after US stock market closes—this period is short, and hedging conflicts completely with rest time, making it somewhat unprofitable. It's so frustrating it makes me want to vomit blood.
I wonder if friends at @binancezh could take a look. The weekend funding rate is acceptable now, but the funding rate after the US stock market closes each day is about double the rate at market open. It's killing me 😂.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, it still maintains good synchronization with the US stock market. Although the gains are not as strong as the stock market, it still doesn't contradict it. This shows that investors, while optimistic about the US stock market, also casually buy some $BTC. Moreover, recent data shows more and more BTC is gradually shifting to long-term holding, which helps alleviate the current selling pressure.
But essentially, the main market players for now are still the US and Iran. It's still the US inflation and recession expectations brought by the Strait of Hormuz, followed by US monetary policy, tariffs, and the midterm elections.
#Bitget means VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
Phyrex.Ni
The lazy mode lasts until Monday, which is the last day. Tomorrow is the last day of rest before I have to work hard to make money. Recently, there aren't many opportunities for certain profits left, which is also related to my skill level. Currently, the most certain thing for me is shorting WTI. I'm still shorting it now; although I've reduced my position somewhat, seeing that the funding rate is no longer high, I'm preparing to add some positions on rallies. If it keeps dropping all the way down, I'll accept it.
The current opening price is around $97. I'm planning to add more if it can return to $95. The first target price is still $85. Additionally, I plan to move part of my position to brokers to save some costs. Also, I'm looking for projects with high funding rates to see if there are opportunities to arbitrage funding rates. If feasible, I'll take some money out to do an experiment and share the results with friends.
The current market trend is still a game of war between Iran and the US. The dispute around the Strait of Hormuz continues. This time, French and British warships have also entered the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian foreign minister stated that this move could likely escalate tensions in Hormuz. Honestly, Iran's strategy of leveraging its position to command others has indeed caused trouble for the global economy. This farce should come to an end.
Back to Bitcoin data, there’s nothing new over the weekend. Trading volume and liquidity are pitifully low. I have repeatedly emphasized that the current $BTC price fluctuations have no essential connection with the crypto market. Instead, US macro, political, and economic factors affecting the US interfere with Bitcoin. The BTC price is often determined by short-term investors; the less turnover among short-term investors, the stronger BTC’s price.
#Bitget Come and be VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place
I believe the amount of money a person can earn through hard work is limited.
What can expand limited money infinitely is cognition.
And what can preserve infinitely large money is luck.
Luck itself is a kind of choice.
For example:
If you have 10,000 BTC when $BTC is at 10 dollars, first you need to have earned 100,000 dollars through hard work.
When Bitcoin rises to 1,000 dollars and you haven't sold any, that is your cognition.
And when Bitcoin rises to 100,000 dollars and you have never sold even one, I think that is your luck.
Nancy🩶
Ni Da, I have always had a blind spot, I hope you can enlighten me 🙏
First of all, I agree that choice is more important than effort.
But my blind spot is:
Don't we also need to "work hard" in order to make the "right" "choices"?
Without putting in effort to judge, we can't make the right choices, right?
It’s a cycle, we still have to work hard!
At first glance, this chart seems to be true. Indeed, during the tenures of these Federal Reserve chairmen, there were instances of pullbacks, but with some differences.
Arthur Burns took office in February 1970, with the largest pullback occurring in 1973-1974, about 3 years after taking office.
Paul Volcker took office in August 1979, with the largest pullback occurring in 1980-1982, less than 1 year after taking office.
Alan Greenspan took office in August 1987, with the largest pullback in October 1987, 2 months after taking office.
Ben Bernanke took office in February 2006, with the largest pullback in 2007-2009, 1 year after taking office.
Janet Yellen took office in February 2014, with the largest pullback in 2015-2016, 1 year after taking office.
Jerome Powell took office in February 2018, with the largest pullback in 2020, 2 years after taking office.
So, there is no absolute continuity here. From another perspective, what's more interesting is:
During Arthur Burns' tenure, the S&P 500's maximum gain was about 57%.
G. William Miller's was 17%.
Paul Volcker's was 220%.
Alan Greenspan's was 516%.
Ben Bernanke's was 141%.
Janet Yellen's was 54%.
Jerome Powell's was 189%.
However, I did a backtest based on Barclays' compilation of Federal Reserve chair transitions since 1930. Looking at point-to-point returns, the proportion of actual declines 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months after the transition is approximately 33%, 50%, and 33%, respectively.
So, this is not a guaranteed drop after a leadership change, but rather that volatility tends to amplify during transition periods.
0xkevin00
There is a mystical aspect to the US stock market: the stock market always falls when the Federal Reserve Chair changes.
The new Federal Reserve Chair is expected to take office in about two months.
If you are planning to dollar-cost average into US stocks recently, you might want to wait a month to buy the dip before getting in.
Below is a compilation of mystical data 👇
😆 Hahaha, this time no objections, I completely agree with Chris's suggestion. For many friends who find individual stocks troublesome, buying an index is very safe and also has a high degree of certainty, almost a no-brainer investment, like QQQ or VOO.
But I personally recommend buying $CSPX, the Ireland-registered S&P 500 UCITS ETF, iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF, accumulating type. Look up the benefits yourself.
Chris Lee
It's rare to catch some of Phyrex's traffic, haha! But most people don't understand individual stocks (many have paid their tuition fees, including myself, and not small amounts), lacking time and skills. However, AI as a tool can answer many questions we don't understand.
Actually, I've always advocated for asset allocation. Just holding coins without diversifying risk is risky, especially since most coins, particularly altcoins, are tail-end assets. Even for the big brother Bitcoin, the most important "factor" that drives its price up, according to much research, is only one thing: increased or even excessive liquidity.
So, you must do proper asset allocation. If you really don't understand individual stocks, then buy indexes and use dollar-cost averaging. Everyone knows the next 5 years will be a big AI tech wave, so buying QQQ should be fine, right?!
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tesla are good long-term heavy holdings, especially Bitcoin, which is a belief shared by insiders including myself. I am grateful to Satoshi Nakamoto and Li Lin for letting me live in a nice house in Shanghai and enjoy a relatively free life.
The depreciation of the US dollar won't stop, and Bitcoin still has great potential in the future.
As I always say, proper asset allocation helps achieve stable returns and risk control, supporting the future of our families!
Pretty good, please help share, support the young friends.
华山令狐冲
This is a job-seeking post from a recent graduate:
Hello everyone, I am Linghu Chong from Mount Hua, you can also call me Peter
Mid-April. After three rounds of interviews, I was happily offered a verbal offer from @Polymarket, but last week I was informed that due to internal team adjustments, I am currently unable to officially join.
Only two months left until graduation, time is tight
Therefore, I am posting to seek job opportunities.
Here is my basic information:
· Graduating this July, male, 21 years old, majoring in Journalism
· Mainly looking for opportunities in Web3 / Crypto, also open to AI and internet-related positions
· Capable of growth marketing, user operations, product operations, community operations, marketing and business, APAC market-related roles
· Interned at Kuaishou and Baidu, both in core operational business; most recent internship involved exchange-related business
· Over two and a half years of cryptocurrency trading experience, long-term follower of top-tier markets, sensitive to user, community, and market changes
· Served as an ambassador for multiple Web3 projects, familiar with community growth, user communication, content dissemination, and market rhythm
· Possess product thinking and basic coding skills, started using AI tools like Lovable in 2024 to develop and launch small projects
· Proficient in AI tools, have integrated AI into daily workflows for production, research, and efficiency improvement
· Two entrepreneurial experiences, mainly responsible for user growth, marketing, and commercialization
· Fluent in English for daily communication, able to participate in English meetings
· Skilled in video editing, strong writing ability, with internet sense and aesthetics
· Hobbies include reading, watching movies, listening to music, and sports; favorites are Ma Boyong, Nolan, Jay Chou, and Messi 😆
· Very familiar with football, wrote homepage recommendation articles, invited to sign with Hupu Sports; also served as assistant news officer at a top domestic club
I am qualified for but not limited to the following positions:
Growth, community, operations, BD, APAC market roles in Web3 / Crypto projects;
User growth, content operations, product operations for AI or internet products;
Positions involving sports, content, community, and young users.
Additional info:
The process of engaging with Polymarket lasted over two months and taught me a lot.
Although I couldn’t join smoothly in the end, I am still very grateful for the experience;
The team members I met were professional, proactive, and friendly. I have no complaints about the team and still wish Polymarket all the best!
Finally
If you are looking for someone who:
Understands marketing, users, community, content dissemination, willing to learn quickly, capable of high-intensity execution, and willing to build long-term, a young person like me is welcome to contact me!
If you could help share this or recommend suitable positions to me, Peter would be very, very grateful!
Please DM me for the full resume
Thank you for reading this far,
Wishing everyone great trades in your own markets 🙏
