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Situation Continues to Escalate, Will the U.S. Engage in Full-Scale War with Iran? Latest Situation (May 2026) 1. Current Military Standoff The U.S. military has deployed over 20 warships to enforce a naval blockade on Iran Continuous clashes occurred in the Strait of Hormuz (May 7-8) Iranian missiles and drones have locked onto U.S. targets and are on standby The U.S. has blocked more than 70 oil tankers from entering or leaving Iranian ports 2. Predicaments of Both Sides United States Iran Ammunition shortage, low morale Under naval blockade but can sustain for months Domestic oil prices rising, public opinion under pressure Firm stance, rejects U.S. ultimatums Allies criticize and express concern Receives international support (Japan, India, EU) Eager to end conflict Not in a hurry, can withstand pressure 3. Diplomatic Negotiation Updates U.S. submitted a ceasefire memorandum (including 14 clauses) Trump has repeatedly expected a response from Iran but received no positive reply UN Secretary-General intervened to mediate Negotiations have not been interrupted; both sides maintain minimal communication 🎯 Why is the likelihood of full-scale war low? 1. Neither side intends to fully engage in war The U.S. media "The Atlantic" pointed out: The Trump administration "dares not continue fighting, but Iran is uncooperative in negotiations" Analysts: The situation has entered a phase where "war and complete cessation of talks are both impossible" 2. Huge costs and consequences The Strait of Hormuz handles 30% of global oil trade; full-scale war would push oil prices beyond $150/barrel The U.S. is already bearing domestic oil price hikes and pressure from allies Iran, though blockaded, can maintain basic trade via land routes and Caspian Sea ports 3. International community involvement UN Secretary-General mediates Multiple countries call for restraint to avoid loss of control 4. Current pattern: conflict alongside negotiations Military friction has become normalized, but all parties exercise restraint Both sides use military pressure to increase negotiation leverage Analysts believe friction will not affect the final peace talks 📊 Conclusion The probability of full-scale war erupting in the short term is low, because: ✅ Both sides are willing to negotiate (despite firm stances) ✅ The cost of full-scale war is too high for either side to bear ✅ International mediation is playing a role ✅ Currently in a "mutual probing" phase, with friction and negotiations coexisting However, risk points to watch: ⚠️ Misjudgment risk: military friction could unexpectedly escalate ⚠️ Domestic politics: Trump faces pressure and may take more aggressive measures ⚠️ Third parties: involvement of regional forces like Israel Overall assessment: This is more like a "high-stakes game" where both sides use military deterrence to gain negotiation advantages, and it is very likely to lead to some form of compromise rather than full-scale war.

Main storyline: Middle East geopolitical escalation + energy price surge + cooling expectations for Fed rate cuts + upcoming China-US trade talks; traditional financial stocks weak amid bond panic, oil and gold prices surge; BTC/ETH rise first then fluctuate, with intensified long-short battles. I. Core news in the past 24 hours (5/11) 1️⃣ Middle East: Iran responds firmly to the US, risk in the Strait of Hormuz soars Iran officially responded to the US "end of war plan": demands lifting oil sanctions, unfreezing assets, ensuring no military strikes within 30 days, and controlling the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a comprehensive ceasefire; both sides have serious disagreements over the nuclear program freeze duration[]. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced: upgraded air defense and anti-ship missile deployments completed in the Persian Gulf/Oman Gulf, fully covering the Strait of Hormuz, capable of precise strikes on invading targets. Market reaction: Brent crude oil surged +3.5% to $104.8/barrel, WTI approached $99; EU natural gas +1.8%; gold spiked then retreated ($4700→$4680), silver broke $80[]. 2️⃣ Macro: US nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, Fed rate cut expectations cool US April nonfarm employment strengthened beyond expectations, unemployment rate declined, wage growth slightly increased[]. Market pricing: June rate cut probability dropped to 35%, expected total cuts this year reduced from 3 to 1–2; US Treasury yields rose across the board (10-year broke 4.5%), dollar index rebounded[]. Institutional views: PIMCO said high oil prices + strong employment may force the Fed to abandon rate cuts or even restart tightening, raising risk of inflation running out of control again. 3️⃣ China: April CPI moderate, China-US trade talks to start tomorrow April CPI YoY +1.2%, MoM +0.3%, core CPI +1.2%; PPI growth expanded, consumption steadily recovering, industry warming up. Ministry of Commerce announced: Vice Premier He Lifeng to visit South Korea for talks with US on 5/12–13, market focuses on progress in tariffs, agricultural products, energy, etc. 4️⃣ Crypto-related: no direct new regulatory policies, institutional sentiment neutral to cautious Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows slowed, Grayscale GBT redemption pressure eased; Ethereum ETF funds slightly returned. Fear & Greed Index at 48 (neutral), market awaits US CPI and Fed officials’ speeches on 5/12. II. Impact on traditional financial markets 1️⃣ Stock market: rising risk aversion, growth under pressure, energy and gold strengthen US stocks: three major indexes opened high then fell, Nasdaq -1.2% (high rates suppress growth); energy sector +2.8%, gold mining +3.5%[]. A-shares: Shanghai +1.08%, Shenzhen +2.16%, STAR 50 +4.65%; energy, precious metals, and defense lead gains, growth stocks diverge. 2️⃣ Bond market: rates rise, curve flattens bearishly, risk aversion favors short bonds US Treasuries: 10-year yield +8bp to 4.52%, 2-year +10bp to 4.78%, market pricing "higher rates for longer"[]. Chinese bonds: slight rate rise, risk aversion + China-US talks expectations suppress long end, short bonds relatively resilient. 3️⃣ Commodities: energy ignites, gold as safe haven, industrial metals diverge Oil: geopolitical + supply-demand dual drivers, Brent stabilizes above $103, short term target $108–110[]. Gold: supported by safe haven demand + inflation concerns, oscillates between $4650–4700, mid-to-long term bullish logic strengthens[]. III. Impact on BTC/ETH (as of 07:00 5/12) 1️⃣ Price performance BTC: $81,410 (24h -0.02%), daily range $80,277–82,474, high-level oscillation, intensified long-short battles. ETH: $2,331 (24h -0.78%), daily range $2,304–2,382, weaker than BTC, mainly correlated movement, insufficient independent momentum. 2️⃣ Core driving logic (mixed long and short) Bullish (support): - Strengthened geopolitical safe haven attribute: Middle East conflict escalation, BTC favored as a "non-sovereign hard asset" for allocation, short-term support at $80,000[]. - Energy + inflation narrative: oil price surge pushes inflation expectations, BTC’s value as a hedge against fiat depreciation highlighted, mid-to-long term positive. - ETH ecosystem recovery: DeFi activity rises, stablecoin issuance increases, RWA tokenization advances, supporting ETH fundamentals. Bearish (pressure): - High rate expectations suppress: stronger-than-expected nonfarm + cooling rate cut expectations, risk asset valuations pressured, BTC/ETH volatility increases, upward space limited[]. - Dollar rebound diverts funds: stronger dollar index, funds flow back to dollar assets, crypto market liquidity tightens marginally[]. - Short-term profit-taking: BTC rebounded over 15% from April lows, profit-taking at highs suppresses upside. 3️⃣ Key levels (short term) BTC: support at $80,000/$78,500; resistance at $82,500/$85,000. ETH: support at $2,300/$2,245 (strong support, break or touch may trigger chain liquidations); resistance at $2,380/$2,420. IV. Summary and follow-up focus Main logic: Middle East geopolitics → energy inflation → Fed policy expectations → global asset repricing, BTC/ETH caught in a tug-of-war between "safe haven benefits + high rate headwinds." Upcoming key events (5/12–13): - US April CPI (5/12 20:30): if core CPI beats expectations → rate cut expectations cool further → BTC/ETH pressured; otherwise rebound. - China-US trade talks (5/12–13): if easing signals released → risk appetite rises → positive for BTC/ETH; if tense, risk aversion strengthens. - Fed officials’ speeches: watch for statements on inflation and rate cuts, directly impacting rate expectations and crypto asset valuations.

Interpretation of “According to CNBC: U.S. auto loan and credit card delinquency rates have hit historic highs.” Key Data (End of 2025 – Early 2026) Auto loans (seriously delinquent 90+ days): 5.2% (New York Fed, Q4 2025), close to the 2010 financial crisis peak of 5.3%. Subprime auto loans (60+ days): 6.65% (Fitch, January 2026), a 32-year high (since 1993). Credit cards (seriously delinquent 90+ days): 12.7% (New York Fed, Q4 2025), the highest since 2011. Debt scale: Auto loan balance $1.68 trillion (exceeding credit cards at $1.28 trillion); total credit card delinquency about $37 billion. Main Causes High prices + high interest rates: New car average price nearly $50,000, monthly payment about $750; Federal Reserve’s high interest rates increase repayment costs. Pressure on low incomes: Inflation erodes wages, debt repayment ability worsens for low-income and young groups (16–24 years old unemployment rate 10.4%). Deterioration of debt structure: Auto loan scale approaching student loans, rising share of subprime loans, risks concentrated among low-income groups. Impact and Boundaries Localized pressure: Delinquencies concentrated in subprime and low-income groups, default rates among prime borrowers remain controllable. Limited systemic risk: Consumer loans (including auto loans and credit cards) about $4.7 trillion, far below mortgage loans at $13.47 trillion, unlikely to trigger a full-scale crisis[] for now. Policy signals: The Federal Reserve’s high interest rates show a suppressive effect on consumption, potentially affecting the pace of rate cuts.

Discussing those major institutions also facing unrealized losses, the average ETH holding costs of core institutions are as follows 1. BlackRock (ETHA+ETBA) Holding volume: ≈3.47 million ETH Average cost: $3,300/ETH (Glassnode update May 2026) Unrealized loss: ≈30% ($3,300→$2,300) Key period: April 2025–October 2025 mainly building positions, average price $3,100–$3,600 2. Fidelity (FETH) Holding volume: ≈600,000 ETH Average cost: $3,500/ETH (Glassnode update May 2026) Unrealized loss: ≈34% ($3,500→$2,300) Key period: May 2025–November 2025 intensive purchases, average price $3,300–$3,800 3. Grayscale (ETHE) Holding volume: ≈2.9 million ETH Average cost: $2,850/ETH (Arkham on-chain retrospective) Unrealized loss: ≈19% Feature: Accumulated at low prices in 2024 ($1,600–$2,200), cost significantly lower than BlackRock/Fidelity 4. Other institutions (reference) JPMorgan: ≈80,000 ETH, cost **$3,200–$3,400** Goldman Sachs: ≈120,000 ETH, cost **$3,100–$3,300** State Street: ≈50,000 ETH, cost **$3,000–$3,200** 5. Summary in one sentence BlackRock/Fidelity have the highest costs ($3,300–$3,500), unrealized losses over 30%, serving as strong psychological support levels for the current ETH price; Grayscale has the lowest cost ($2,850), with controllable unrealized losses and the most stable holdings; The collective institutional cost concentration zone is $3,000–$3,400, above which widespread break-even and selling pressure emerge.

Interpretation of “BlackRock has transferred BTC/ETH in bulk to Coinbase Prime for the ninth time since February 10, totaling approximately 1 billion USD” 1. Event Timeline (2026.2.10–5.8, Ninth time) February 10: First large transfer (about $670 million, 3,401 BTC + 30,215 ETH), with the first mention of "possible continued deposits." February–April: Maintained a pace of transfers every 10–15 days, with single transfer sizes ranging from **$70 million to $220 million**. May 8 (Ninth time): Transferred 1,224 BTC + 11,475 ETH, totaling about **$124 million**, again marked as "possible continued deposits." Pattern: Nearly 3 consecutive months, 9 times, each time with "possible continuation" → Not a one-time liquidation, but a systematic, ongoing operation. 2. Scale and Structure (Feb–May 2026) Total transfer scale: Approximately **$800 million to $1 billion** (estimated). Single transfer range: $70 million to $220 million (primarily BTC, supplemented by ETH). Asset source: Entirely from BlackRock's **IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) / ETHA (Ethereum ETF)** cold wallets → Coinbase Prime (institutional custody/trading account). On-chain characteristics: Only inflows, no outflows (so far), very rare transfers back from Prime to cold wallets; no direct spot market dumping. 3. Core Motivation (Not selling, but liquidity management) 1) ETF redemption "cash/physical settlement" reserve (primary reason) IBIT/ETHA use a mixed mechanism of cash redemption + physical subscription. At redemption: BTC/ETH must move from cold wallet → Prime → sold for cash → cash returned to investors. Depositing = pre-positioning assets in trading accounts to handle redemption peaks; "possible continued deposits" = anticipating ongoing redemption pressure. 2) Market making and OTC block trade reserves Coinbase Prime is BlackRock's sole designated custody + market maker channel. Large assets held in Prime are used for: ETF share market making (maintaining secondary market liquidity, narrowing premium/discount); Institutional OTC block trades (avoiding public market dumps, one-on-one deals); Lending/derivatives collateral (earning interest or hedging). 3) Custody architecture rebalancing (cold → hot wallet allocation) Institutional norm: 90% assets in cold wallets (security), 10% in hot wallets (liquidity). Recent transfers = increasing hot wallet proportion to accommodate ETF scale growth and rising volatility liquidity needs. 4. Market Misinterpretation and Reality ❌ Retail interpretation: "Institutions are dumping, bear market is coming" (seeing transfers to exchanges = selling). ✅ Reality: No evidence of large-scale dumping: total BTC/ETH balances on exchanges have not significantly increased, spot prices have not dropped accordingly; This is "reserve" not "selling": nearly 3 months of repeated "possible continued deposits" = long-term liquidity arrangement, not short-term bearishness; ETF scale is still expanding: IBIT holdings increased from about 750,000 BTC in February to about 810,000 BTC in May, net accumulation. 5. Key Conclusion (One-sentence summary) BlackRock's continuous 9 transfers of BTC/ETH to Coinbase represent systematic liquidity management for ETF redemption reserves + market making/OTC reserves + custody rebalancing, not liquidation; "possible continued deposits" imply this pattern will continue, and institutional crypto allocation is still deepening.

The total market capitalization of the A-share market has surpassed the 120 trillion mark. Looking globally… USA: ~75–77 trillion USD China (A-shares): ~14.8–15.3 trillion USD European Union (Eurozone): ~12.0 trillion USD 👉 ( STOXX Europe 600 (main EU + Switzerland, etc.): about 19.4 trillion USD (2026-03, USD) ) Japan: ~8.3 trillion USD Hong Kong, China: ~7.5 trillion USD India: ~5.1 trillion USD

What does the world's number one Trump do all day? 1. Rejects Iran's peace plan, calling it completely unacceptable — On May 10 local time, Trump posted that he had just read the response sent by Iran's so-called "representatives," and he did not like it, saying "this is completely unacceptable." 2. Talks with Israeli Prime Minister to exchange views on Iran's latest response — On the evening of May 10 local time, Israeli officials revealed that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had a phone call with Trump. An Israeli journalist also stated that Trump told him he exchanged views with Netanyahu regarding Iran's latest response to the US ending the war plan. 3. Claims to have been monitoring Iran's enriched uranium buried under the rubble — Trump said the US has been monitoring Iran's enriched uranium buried under the rubble, with the US Space Force responsible for this. Trump stated that if anyone approaches, they will be immediately detected and destroyed. 4. Accuses Iran of "delaying and mocking" the US — On May 10, Trump accused Iran of repeatedly "delaying" and "mocking" the US and other countries for decades. Additionally, Trump harshly criticized former Presidents Obama and Biden's Iran policies, calling Obama, who reached the nuclear deal with Iran during his term, a "sucker," and said Biden is worse than Obama. 5. Expresses anticipation for the China visit — On May 11, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that US President Trump will make a state visit to China from May 13 to 15. In an interview aired on May 10, Trump expressed great anticipation for the visit to China and believed the trip would be wonderful. 6. Reiterates auditing the Fort Knox gold vault, wanting to personally verify nearly $700 billion in gold reserves — In a Sunday program interview, Trump said now is an excellent time to audit the Fort Knox gold reserves and hopes to personally confirm whether the highly secured vault still holds the nearly $700 billion worth of national gold reserves intact. 7. Orders all federal agencies to "buy American" — On May 10, Trump said the US government will strengthen regulations to ensure federal agencies prioritize purchasing American-made products. He also stated that he had previously signed an executive order to crack down on counterfeit "Made in America" goods.

Gold Daily Briefing May 11, 2026 • US-Iran talks deadlocked, geopolitical tensions push oil prices up, suppressing gold • US April non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, strengthening Fed's high interest rate expectations, pressuring gold prices • Modi calls on Indian citizens to stop buying gold to address foreign exchange and trade balance pressures • Domestic gold jewelry consumption in Q1 drops over 30% year-on-year, demand clearly weakens • Tokenized gold trading volume surges, Q1 trading volume exceeds entire last year • Multiple institutions believe gold is currently fluctuating, awaiting clear signal guidance

Bank of America Global Research and Goldman Sachs have recently adjusted their forecasts for the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Both institutions believe that persistently high energy prices and a strong U.S. labor market leave the Fed little room to cut rates in the short term. 1. Core Conclusion (May 2026) Both Bank of America and Goldman Sachs have delayed their expectations for Fed rate cuts, sharing the same core logic: high energy prices are driving inflation up, and the labor market is stronger than expected, leaving the Fed "no rates to cut"; the consensus is for "higher for longer" interest rates. 2. Latest Forecasts from Both Institutions (Comparison) Bank of America Global Research (May 8) 2026: Maintain rates unchanged for the full year (cancelling previous expectations of cuts in September/October) First rate cut: July 2027 (-25bp) Second rate cut: September 2027 (-25bp) Goldman Sachs (May 8) First rate cut: December 2026 (delayed from September, -25bp) Second rate cut: March 2027 (-25bp) 3. Two Major Hard Constraints for Delaying Rate Cuts High energy prices, stubborn inflation Ongoing Middle East conflicts continue to push oil prices higher; core PCE inflation is unlikely to fall below 3% this year, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman Sachs: Energy cost pass-through plus AI demand make inflation "stickier" than expected; conditions for rate cuts are not yet mature. Strong labor market, resilient economy U.S. nonfarm payrolls in April exceeded expectations, unemployment steady at 4.3%, wage pressures remain. Goldman Sachs: Rate cuts require both a significant drop in inflation and a weakening labor market; both conditions are necessary. 4. Market Impact (In Brief) USD: Continued strength at high levels, short-term trend depreciation unlikely. U.S. Treasuries: Long-term yields under pressure, risk of "bear flattening" of the curve rising. U.S. Stocks: High-growth/high-valuation sectors suppressed; value and earnings certainty favored. Commodities: High energy prices provide support; delayed rate cuts are bearish for industrial metals. 5. Key Observation Points June FOMC: Fed updates dot plot and inflation/employment assessments, likely reinforcing "higher for longer" guidance. Subsequent data: Core PCE, nonfarm wages, oil price trends will determine if rate cut expectations are pushed further out.

More than 12 crypto companies have applied for the US OCC national trust license Since December 2025, over 12 crypto and fintech companies, including Coinbase, Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Morgan Stanley, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Kraken's parent company Payward, have applied for or obtained a national trust bank license from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The goal is to achieve independent asset custody and trust services, reducing reliance on traditional banks. Currently, only Anchorage Digital Bank is fully operational.