Lei06

Today, something happened with BTC that many people didn't notice. UTC open $81,740. 24h high $82,140. 24h low $79,842. Current price $80,566. Did you see the low? $79,842. Below $80,000. BTC briefly dipped below the $80K line today — then climbed back up. This line has been tracked for a long time in this series. I've written many times that "$80K is today's defense line." Today, the defense line was tested at the bottom but not broken. Now look at these two data points together, a bit contradictory: Short ratio: Tracking 10 periods in this series, the short ratio trend is: 58.46% → 57.11% → 58.03% → 61.59% → 62.18% (last extreme) → 60.98% → 60.01% → 57.81% → 57.18% (latest) From the 62.18% extreme, it fell back to 57.18%. The shorts have been retreating by 5 percentage points over recent periods. Logically, short retreat = buy orders coming in = price should go up. But BTC is now $80,566, UTC down -1.44%. Shorts are decreasing, but the price is falling — the money from short covering did not push BTC up. Now look at OI (Open Interest): 10 periods data: $7.775B → $7.762B → $7.841B → $7.981B → $8.218B → $8.213B → $8.211B → $8.207B → $8.179B → $8.375B (latest) Latest OI: $8.375B — the highest since this series started tracking. Plainly put: although the short ratio is falling from the extreme, total open interest has hit a new high. What does this mean? The 5% shorts that left were more than compensated by new positions coming in. New funds are entering aggressively around $80K. Whether long or short, new money is flowing in — the whole battlefield is expanding, not shrinking. Latest Taker ratio: 0.9846, sellers slightly more, basically even split. Fear & Greed Index: 49 (Neutral), still that emotionless number. Putting these facts together: $80K was briefly broken but bounced back. Shorts retreated from extremes but price still fell. OI hit a new high, new funds are entering aggressively. Market sentiment is completely neutral. Plainly put: some see $80K as an opportunity, some see $80K as a top — both sides are heavily betting, neither winning nor losing, just stuck here. But OI at $8.375B is a new high — the stakes on both sides are bigger than ever. $80K was stepped on today, then bounced back — this is not a victory, it's luck. The spring is now tighter than last time; the next move will use more force and go farther. $BTC

SUI was discussed here two days ago. The conclusion of that article was: the price rose by 25%, but 67% of the longs were shaken off at the top. Today is the sequel. After being shaken off, a new batch of longs started entering the market. Look at the long ratio tracked in this series, 10 data points: 57.56% → 59.21% → 62.21% → 63.50% → 64.13% → 63.64% → 62.54% → 63.59% → 63.15% → 62.55% (latest) Climbing steadily from 57.56% up to 64.13%, now at 62.55%. What are these people doing? They are catching SUI. Catching it all the way down—every time SUI drops a bit, someone thinks "it's cheap enough, time to buy," and then they enter. The problem is: SUI current price is $1.2264. UTC open was $1.291, today UTC dropped -4.97%. 24h high $1.3284, 24h low $1.2139. Longs are continuously adding positions, but the price keeps falling. Plainly put: they caught it, but caught it on the downhill. What is this called? Catching the bottom halfway up the mountain. You think $1.28 is cheap, but there are still sellers at $1.25. You think $1.25 is the bottom, but $1.22 appears again. Look at the OI (open interest): $154.6M → $148.0M → $142.8M → $137.8M → $139.6M → $135.6M → $134.9M → $133.5M → $130.0M → $130.2M (latest) OI shrank from $154.6M to $130.2M—a reduction of $24.4M in positions. Long ratio is rising, but total positions are shrinking—this indicates two things happening simultaneously: 1. Some are stopping losses and exiting (positions decreasing); 2. The new longs entering have smaller positions than the shorts exiting. The combined result of these two is: more people are bullish, but each is betting less—market is "cautiously long," not "confidently long." SUI has experienced two phases in the past two days: Phase one (the day before yesterday): $1.135 → $1.4139, up 25%, old longs sold at the top, pushing the long ratio from 67% down to 57%. Phase two (now): new longs started catching from 57.56%, climbing to 62.55%, but price fell from $1.3284 back to $1.2264—caught all the way down, price dropped all the way down. Today's 24h low is $1.2139. This is SUI's last line of defense now. If $1.2139 holds, the stop losses of the 62% longs haven't triggered yet. If $1.2139 breaks, these longs who have been adding from 57% will start lining up to stop loss. Their stop losses will fuel the next accelerated drop. SUI's current structure: 62% longs are trapped on the downtrend, $1.2139 is today's critical point. Holding it means digestion, breaking it means a stop loss chain. $SUI

To be straightforward, I feel like a mysterious force has invaded Wuhan University. There is reason to suspect that the official account of Wuhan University seems to be controlled by something. Considering the recent US disclosure of some UFO intelligence, and then this incident at Wuhan University happened immediately after, could it be the work of aliens? 😱

Here's what happened with SD today in one sentence: It started at 0.15 in the morning, rose to 0.35 at its peak, and is now at 0.21. These three numbers tell the whole story of today. To elaborate: At UTC market open, SD was at $0.1512. Then it started moving: $0.18, $0.22, $0.28, $0.32— Peaking at $0.3559. From $0.1512 to $0.3559, it increased by 135%. Note, this didn’t happen over several days, it all happened within today. Then, people started selling. Not just one person, but a large group— $0.3559, $0.31, $0.27, $0.24— Now: $0.2143. From the peak to now, it dropped by -39.8%. In plain terms, this is called a pump and dump. What happened behind the scenes: Phase 1: Entry zone around $0.15 Those who bought in the morning had costs near $0.1512. They didn’t know it would rise to $0.35; they just bought at a low price. This group is now up +41.7%. Phase 2: $0.25-$0.35 chasing zone Seeing SD start to move, more people jumped in—"It’s already risen so much, maybe it will go higher." This group’s cost is between $0.25 and $0.35. Current price is $0.2143— Those who bought at $0.25 are down -14%. Those who bought at $0.30 are down -28.6%. Those who bought at $0.35 are down -38.8%. Phase 3: $0.35 top, no buyers left $0.3559 was today’s highest point. At this level, buy orders dried up. Not because buyers didn’t want to buy, but because fewer people were willing to buy at $0.35 than those willing to sell at $0.35. More sellers than buyers means the price can only go down. Today’s SD price movement is a textbook example of a "pump and dump" structure: Buy low → pump to attract chasing buyers → sell high → price falls back This doesn’t mean someone was manipulating the market; it’s normal market logic—some bought early, others chased the rise, early buyers sold to the chasers, and the price completed a round trip. Today, the biggest winners are those who bought at $0.15. The biggest losers are those who chased at $0.35. Now at $0.21, these two groups are thinking very different things. $SD

This series has been writing about one thing in the past few days: BTC is sideways, altcoins are running. XRP +2.5%, SOL +2%, ADA +2.3% — after BTC shorts retreated, the money didn’t return to BTC but went to altcoins. This is rotation. We also wrote an operation card and covered SUI’s 25% surge from $1.135 to $1.4139. Today is the day to pay back. Now: • BTC $80,923, UTC open $81,740, UTC -1.0% • ETH $2,291, UTC open $2,339, UTC -2.06% • XRP $1.4515, UTC open $1.4768, UTC -1.71% • ADA $0.2745, UTC open $0.2801, UTC -2.0% • ETC $9.47, UTC open $9.77, UTC -3.04% BTC fell 1%, altcoins all fell 2%-3%. Plainly speaking: altcoins falling more than BTC indicates funds are shrinking back toward BTC or overall withdrawing. The logic of rotation is "BTC sideways, altcoins move first" — but altcoins moving first also means altcoins stop and fall first. The funds long on XRP/ADA/SUI now face two choices: One: this is just a pullback digestion, rotation isn’t over, wait for BTC to stabilize, and the next altcoin wave will move again. The other: this rotation story ends here, altcoins will digest together with BTC in the box; how long BTC oscillates around $80K, altcoins will oscillate the same. Today’s data leans toward the second: Altcoins’ UTC declines are all larger than BTC’s — if it were "pullback waiting for next wave," altcoins should be more resilient, not fall more. Falling more means rotation funds that previously moved in are starting to exit. ETC’s UTC -3.04% today is the worst among major altcoins — ETC barely participated in last week’s rotation but fell 3% today, indicating it’s not just rotation funds withdrawing, but the entire altcoin sector moving down. BTC is now $80,923, 24h low $80,454, the $80K defense line still holds. Whether BTC can hold $80K is the key anchor for today’s entire altcoin market — if BTC holds, altcoins digest; if BTC breaks, altcoins will fall even harder than BTC. The recent altcoin rotation has entered the payback phase today — ETH/XRP/ADA all fell more than BTC, rotation funds are withdrawing, $80K is today’s market defense line. $ETH $BTC $XRP

[Wintermute: This BTC rally is clearly driven by leverage, with a surge in open interest contracts and sluggish spot trading] Wintermute released its weekly market report stating that Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and even touched about $83,000, while also reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally is clearly driven more by leveraged funds rather than spot buying. The report points out that over the past month, Bitcoin's open interest increased by about $10 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low, a typical short squeeze scenario. Although ETFs still recorded a net inflow of $623 million and exchange BTC reserves fell to a seven-year low, the current RSI has entered the overbought zone. If spot funds fail to take over after the squeeze ends, BTC prices may face a rapid correction risk. Wintermute also stated that the current crypto market rally is more driven by the strong US stock market and leverage resonance rather than independent bull market logic. Upcoming US CPI data and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will be key factors to watch for whether BTC can stably hold above $80,000. $BTC

Today's platform hot coins list: $LAB / $SUI / $ZEC / $TON / $XRP / $BILL Six hot coins, six different stories today—— $LAB $4.644 | 24h high $7.656 → dropped back to $4.64 What happened today is something this series has been waiting for a long time: 72% extreme short positions were squeezed once, price surged to $7.65 — then failed to hold and crashed back. 63% shorts remain. This story is not over yet. $BILL $0.1446 | 24h +11.8%, UTC +4.0% Previously wrote about BILL in this series: W-shaped bottom, long position ratio rebounded from the 50.93% trough. Today it rose 11.8%, quietly, unnoticed — but this is the biggest gainer among these six today. $TON $2.446 | 24h +3.7%, UTC +0.74% Yesterday wrote about altcoin market, TON was the loser that day: -5.15%. Today +3.7%, starting to recover. $SUI $1.2657 | 24h -0.58%, 24h high $1.3284 Up 25% yesterday, today is digesting. No further rally, nor big drop — this is called a consolidation period after a shakeout, watching if $1.25 can hold. $XRP $1.458 | 24h +0.43%, 24h high $1.4896 Almost touched $1.49, then pulled back. $1.48-$1.49 is a short-term resistance zone; breaking through means a new trend, failing means continued consolidation. $ZEC $550.97 | 24h -3.5%, UTC -1.08% The only one continuously declining among the six. Dropped from $572 to $550, the decline is not large but no sign of rebound, the long logic only holds if supported at $546.

Arthur Hayes: We are currently in a crypto bull market, and Bitcoin will accelerate its short squeeze rally after breaking $90,000 On May 12, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "The Butterfly Touch" that liquidity in both the US dollar and Chinese yuan is expected to continue rising, benefiting Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin bottomed at $60,000 earlier this year, and with the tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan about to be created, reclaiming $126,000 is a foregone conclusion. Many haters will refuse to participate in this Bitcoin rally because it has significantly lagged behind tech stocks and gold over the past 24 months. Many fail to understand why Bitcoin still matters as a hedge against reckless money printing. But it will demonstrate its sensitivity to fiat liquidity expansion. Hayes says the rally is expected to intensify because after Bitcoin breaks $90,000, many short option sellers will rush to close positions, making the price trajectory explosive. He has no idea how high Bitcoin can go but will push Maelstrom's portfolio to maximum risk unless any drastic changes occur. Heading into the midterm elections in November, the US political stance on AI and inflation is expected to become very hostile. This could be a minor slowdown in the rally. Now is the time to start investing in altcoins, except for Hyperliquid ($$HYPE) and Zcash ($$ZEC), his next favorite altcoin is NEAR. He plans to explain the argument in the next article—why the privacy narrative combined with Near's intent will create positive cash flow for the protocol. This will reverse the token's disastrous price performance and create an opportunity to make a big profit as the token quickly approaches its multi-year historical highs. This is a bull market; close your eyes and press the button. There will be times to sell, but not now. $BTC

This series has been tracking a question about LAB: When will the 72% short positions get squeezed? Today, they got squeezed once. But the story isn't over. LAB's 24h high today: $7.656. 24h low: $4.380. Current price: $4.605. From the low to the high, it rose +74.8%. From the high to now, it dropped -39.8%. These two events happened on the same day. First, let's talk about why it rose to $7.656. This series has been tracking LAB's short ratio, which has been above 72% — 7 out of 10 open positions are shorting LAB. This is an extremely crowded short position. Today, this group got hit. Latest 10 periods short ratio: 72.64% → 72.30% → 72.32% → 72.39% → 72.82% (peak) → 72.80% → 68.25% → 67.11% → 63.73% → 63.45% (latest) From the peak of 72.82%, it fell back to 63.45%. 9.37 percentage points of shorts were forced to close during the price surge to $7.656. This is a brief short squeeze — short sellers' forced buy orders push the price up, the higher it goes, the more stop losses trigger, pushing the price even higher. But $7.656 didn't hold. Open Interest (OI) explains what happened: $104 million → $104.9 million → $103 million → $98.3 million → $102.2 million → $109.8 million (peak) → $106.1 million → $90.9 million → $92.2 million → $82.2 million (latest) From the peak of $109.8 million, it dropped to $82.2 million — a reduction of $27.6 million in positions. Positions are disappearing on a large scale; it's not new entrants but a large amount of positions exiting — some forced liquidations, some voluntary stop losses, some taking profits at high levels. Looking at the Taker side, buyers were consistently more aggressive than sellers throughout — 9 out of 10 periods had a ratio above 1.0, peaking at 1.2353. This indicates the surge to $7.656 was driven by real buy orders, not fake volume. But now: UTC open $4.905, current price $4.605, UTC has dropped -6.12%. The short squeeze happened, but $7.65 didn't hold — after 9 percentage points of shorts fled, 63% still remain, OI is shrinking, and the price has fallen below the opening price. 63.45% is still an extremely crowded short position. Last time it was 72.82%, squeezed up to $7.65. Now at 63%, where will the next squeeze go? Is the $7.65 story not over yet, will the 63% shorts push the price down first? LAB completed a short squeeze today, but after the squeeze, the price returned to $4.60 — the squeeze reached $7.65, but $7.65 didn't hold, indicating no one was willing to buy there. $LAB

Many verified accounts have been following each other these days. I'll also follow back without requiring comments in the comment section. I will keep track of my follows and definitely won't miss a single one!