灯塔说
灯塔说
Established trader It mainly focuses on trading products such as BTC, ETH, and gold and crude oil, which have high liquidity If you want to join a member copy trading, it is recommended to observe for more than one month Click to follow and subscribe first!
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After watching the planet for a few days, I found that 80-90% of the public square is filled with paid posters and spam posts
There is not much quality
#美联储会议纪要+英伟达财报：5月20同日公布
Entering the summer rainy season soon
Flood warning levels will also appear
The Water Resources Bureau and flood control departments will closely monitor
Just like what is gradually coming into view currently:
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields (10-year, 30-year)
According to the official curve from the U.S. Treasury on May 15:
10-year at 4.59%, 20-year at 5.14%, 30-year at 5.12%;
Intraday on May 18 showed: 10-year once reached 4.631%, 30-year reached 5.159%, just a step away from the historical high since 2007.
Barclays strategists warned clients that yields could break 5.5%, reaching the highest level since 2004.
Although not as extremely high as in the past, it is already in a relatively high range.
The market is also starting to closely watch this yield curve.
What impact does the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields have?
Simply understand these two points, and you’ll get it:
1. You can see high long-term U.S. Treasury yields as a strong dollar; what does a strong dollar mean?
2. It can also be understood as high U.S. Treasury rates compared to other yields that are not high; what actions will the market take?
The purpose of sharing here is not to create panic, just purely to share a recent macro market point.
Also, the background of high long-term U.S. Treasury yields varies, so the impact differs.
But the impact is mainly influenced by complex international events, especially the chain reaction of high oil prices caused by the U.S.-Iran war.
The related impacts are very complex.
But one thing remains unchanged: the current rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields suppresses the U.S. stock market, crypto market, and gold market.
However, gold has a safe-haven attribute in turbulent times.
The crypto market’s "digital gold" safe-haven attribute is more uncertain.
$BTC #美联储会议纪要+英伟达财报：5月20同日公布 #高盛清仓，机构持仓分化 #推迟打击非停战：美伊本周窗口待定
#特朗普持续施压伊朗：国际油价直线拉升
These major events are the key factors that will impact the market going forward:
1. The Federal Reserve changes its chairperson, and the market needs to reinterpret the rules
2. The US-Iran conflict pushes up oil price costs, with inflation facing continued upward risk
3. Long-term US Treasury yields rise; will the bond market believe inflation will be controlled?
4. After the Federal Reserve appoints a new chairperson, can it still maintain absolute independence?
$BTC $ETH
I said, why has my wife been smiling foolishly at her phone lately?
It's the same music.
It turns out to be "Sighing the Spring Breeze" from Wuhan.
Is it good?
灯塔说
Here's my current understanding of the market situation:
$BTC is currently consuming the sell order pressure in the 82-85K range.
At the same time, the Middle East situation hasn't developed in a particularly positive direction yet.
However, a pullback here would be a normal movement.
After the pullback, the uptrend will continue.
The US stock market is strong, so BTC won't drop independently.
The current market is in a strong right-side phase.
If it breaks below the previously mentioned 78,200,
that would only confirm a short-term weakening of the 4-hour level uptrend.
After the pullback, the rise will continue.
Although the daily level is in a downtrend, the bottom has already formed a bullish EMA crossover signal.
This signal, until a bearish death cross reversal occurs, is a long-term hold signal for bottom long positions.
So, trading must be flexible.
If it's a bearish position, wait for the daily rebound to finish or for another death cross on the right side.
If it's a bullish position, hold according to the daily chart (bottom low-leverage contracts or spot).
That's all for tonight.
Haven't rested well these past two days; today I played badminton with Brother Fu @FLS_OTC.
I'm exhausted; as an amateur, I can't beat a pro.
This is a flexible strong (fat) guy.
Here's my current understanding of the market situation:
$BTC is currently consuming the sell order pressure in the 82-85K range.
At the same time, the Middle East situation hasn't developed in a particularly positive direction yet.
However, a pullback here would be a normal movement.
After the pullback, the uptrend will continue.
The US stock market is strong, so BTC won't drop independently.
The current market is in a strong right-side phase.
If it breaks below the previously mentioned 78,200,
that would only confirm a short-term weakening of the 4-hour level uptrend.
After the pullback, the rise will continue.
Although the daily level is in a downtrend, the bottom has already formed a bullish EMA crossover signal.
This signal, until a bearish death cross reversal occurs, is a long-term hold signal for bottom long positions.
So, trading must be flexible.
If it's a bearish position, wait for the daily rebound to finish or for another death cross on the right side.
If it's a bullish position, hold according to the daily chart (bottom low-leverage contracts or spot).
That's all for tonight.
Haven't rested well these past two days; today I played badminton with Brother Fu @FLS_OTC.
I'm exhausted; as an amateur, I can't beat a pro.
This is a flexible strong (fat) guy.
灯塔说
Trade Review:
Sometimes you can't be too obsessed with the market
Occasionally step back and look at the larger cycle
The perspective becomes clearer
The last grid swing short had a clear plan, belonging to a small-scale left-side, large-scale right-side trade
The order was placed for 24 days, executed in 5 days, currently the average price is at 80550, with a target between 73K-70K.
Yesterday, BTC $BTC showed a small-scale weakness for the first time
But as long as the 4-hour level stays above 78200, it still belongs to a bullish structure; breaking below will switch (as shown)
If the hourly chart holds above 80800, it returns to strength and tests new highs
In the short term, today I will first trade rebounds and shorts in the high-level range adjustments and support longs
For example, support at 79100-78000, resistance at 80600-80800
For ETH, I prefer shorting on rebounds, such as 2310-2340
$ETH
Just seriously browsed Twitter
Saw that Dragon King is quitting the scene;
Saw that many altcoins on Alpha have risen more than tenfold
The key is that some diligent little brothers have caught them
Suddenly feel like I'm offline and out of touch
Found that in recent months, I've been so absorbed in playing Delta
This game is too successful
It makes my competitive spirit explode, successfully addicted
How to quit? I need to make more money first
The earlier I earn, the earlier I quit the scene and retire early