朱老师区块链

2 national blockchain key R&D core members, 3,000 projects in 10 years, popular science column.

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There is too much talk about success and too little about being ordinary. Let me share some recent insights and thoughts on how to make choices! Because we often hear the saying "Choice is more important than effort!" A few years ago, I thought this was absolutely true. For example, many years ago, when choosing a college major, engineering was definitely a better choice than liberal arts—easier to find a job and generally higher salaries! For investment, what market you choose to invest in is crucial. For instance, people with the same skill level investing in the Chinese A-share market versus the US stock market will definitely earn more and find it easier in the US market (not considering specific cases, just looking at the indices). Now, looking at the whole environment, things have changed. Previously, choosing to be a programmer meant stable high pay, but now AI is replacing that. With AI's evolution, I actually think service and humanities industries have a better future. For example, Zhang Xuefeng once said journalism was worthless, but now AI can produce great content, whether text or video, but AI doesn’t know how to distribute it. So people who understand journalism and communication in short video production are more likely to stand out! Investment is the same. Any choice you make has its "bad" side. If you do long-term investing, you have to endure short-term volatility. If you do short-term trading, you have to watch the market every day for hours, and you might not have stable gains. Losing today puts you in a bad mood; winning tomorrow makes you very happy! So everything has two sides. Here I want to conclude that how you choose is very important! Because I know one truth—when you gain something, you will definitely lose something else. For example, "When Heaven is about to confer a great responsibility on a man, it first frustrates his spirit and exhausts his muscles and bones." To succeed, you must sweat. If you achieve great success in your career, you must invest a lot of time, which may mean less time caring for and maintaining your family. This can cause conflicts and friction at home. If you suddenly win 5 million in the lottery, you might face big trouble afterward! I had some early insights about these things back in middle school. I remember whenever I found money on the way to school, bad luck would follow—either falling off my bike or getting scolded by a teacher! This happened 2-3 times, so since then, I never pick up money on the street! Many might think this is "superstition," but I think there might be some truth to it. Like candlestick charts, there is no continuous rise; there will be falls. Ups and downs are normal. Life is the same—no one has a smooth journey. So I prefer the philosophy of moderation. Everything just needs to be okay, not extreme! I don’t work extremely hard, nor do I slack off. In investing, I’m neither aggressive nor conservative (not aggressive means no futures contracts, no high-leverage all-in bets; not conservative means I actually invest in crypto! Not traditional funds, etc.) Of course, I’m not saying everyone should think this way. I’m just sharing my insights because I know the truth I mentioned—you gain something, you lose something. If you choose the American-style superhero mindset, that’s fine too. If you want to be the center of attention and go all-in to make big money, that’s okay, but you must accept what you will lose. For example, if you want to be the focus of everyone’s attention, you will face lots of criticism and insults. Going all-in means bigger losses if you fail. You just need to accept all the downsides! There is no right or wrong in choice itself. What matters is that you can bear the consequences and risks after making your choice! I think this view applies not only to investing but also to life choices in general. Back to the opening point: choice is more important than effort, and a deeper layer is that how you choose is even more important, meaning you have the courage to face the negative factors after choosing. So we often see very successful people need tremendous "courage." For example, Lei Jun, after founding the very successful Xiaomi, still went all-in on cars. This requires huge courage because failure would be catastrophic. Of course, he succeeded; a failed example is Jia Yueting. According to the normal distribution, successful people are a minority; most are ordinary. People with courage are more likely to fail, so don’t envy too much. My advice is for ordinary people to just be ordinary, no need to be anxious. This world creates too much anxiety for you. There is too much talk about success and too little about being ordinary! Don’t think about making big money immediately or succeeding overnight. Being an ordinary person among the majority is actually quite good. Standing in the crowd makes you less noticeable and easier to survive and endure. Always remember: "when you get something, you lose something"! #超级事件周 $BTC

This round is not a retail bull market, but an institution-led "short squeeze". Today, let's talk about the recent market and observations! To get straight to the conclusion: this round is an institution-led bear trap! First, let's review previous views. In the article on February 13, it was mentioned that Bitcoin had 5 consecutive monthly red candles, which is rare in history. Statistics show that 5 consecutive monthly red candles rank second in history. When this happens, even if it’s not the absolute bottom, it’s at least a secondary bottom! It’s a very good stage for positioning, and the gradual improvement over the past two months has confirmed this. Of course, many still believe this is just a rebound within a bear market, still bearish, still waiting for BTC at 30k-40k, especially the four-year cycle believers! Actually, in my January 14 article, I discussed the dilemma players face with the four-year cycle failing. Bitcoin has long been dominated or gradually dominated by institutions, so the four-year cycle theory no longer applies; you can’t keep trying the same old approach! I think I’ve said this many times: first, the super bull market expected in November-December 2025 did not come; second, we are watching this current rise, which has already reached 80k, yet some still don’t believe it. When it hits 90k, maybe some still won’t believe it. Because four-year cycle believers think the real bull market will start after October, but I’m putting the conclusion out now: October might be the turning point, heading into a bear market if the Fed doesn’t cut rates. Currently, that seems very likely (inflation is very severe)! There are many macro uncertainties ahead, such as tech stock earnings, Trump’s midterm elections, and Powell’s policies. So it’s not certain October will be bad, but judging by timing and the way the US stock market is rising, it probably can’t last more than half a year without a correction! Now, about the recent market: the US stock market started a super bull run from the end of March, climbing steadily with almost no pullbacks. Many say the US stock market will correct, but historically, whenever it drops sharply once, it quickly rebounds strongly with almost no pullbacks in between, making you regret not getting in every day! Looking at Bitcoin, its trend is quite similar to the US stock market, rising steadily since March with almost no pullbacks, but overall performance is weaker than the US stock market. The US stock market rises 8 days and pulls back 1 day, while Bitcoin might rise 5 days and pull back 3 days. Also, the US stock market has hit new highs, while Bitcoin is still at 80k. I think big money prefers US stocks first because they are more certain, while Bitcoin is a risk asset. Within Bitcoin players, many are still retail investors; institutions might only hold about 30%. I haven’t found the latest data, but in the older (January 2024) address distribution, institutions held 3.6% + 3.9% + 2.7% = 10%. With the ETF approval and two years passing, this number must have increased a lot! So structurally, it’s clear why Bitcoin’s performance lags behind the US stock market: most retail investors still don’t realize the bull market has already started. Many retail investors are still shorting, even though institutions keep buying. From the structure above, retail still dominates. If retail joined forces, Bitcoin would have taken off long ago. Retail still watches candlesticks, for example, around 75k, the upper range of the consolidation zone, they short or wait. At 80k, a reversal line appears, so they short again. Then at 82k, it hits the MA200, the bull-bear dividing line. Many people rely on indicators. But Bitcoin is still strengthening. Whether 75k or 80k, it hasn’t been a tough breakthrough; it easily breaks through, usually testing once and then passing. In the past two days, many have been talking about an M top, but yesterday it was pulled back up. Many say it’s due to the passage of the Clear Act, but how much can this act influence? At most one day. Yesterday, the US stock market also rose well, so Bitcoin is just following the US stock market. I actually think the "whales" are deliberately setting traps to make you lose chips on this upward path! I’ve been watching candlesticks for a long time, like 1H, 4H, daily charts, but I can clearly tell you it’s useless. If your macro judgment is wrong and you get stuck in micro structures, you’ll miss a lot! #美伊局势：峰会联合表态施压 $BTC $ETH $DOGE