CryptoPainter

CryptoPainter

An old friend calls me a "painter", technical/data analysis and quantitative trading, providing various tricky angles to see the market, and using time to leverage. The real account is an agent account, a self-evolving strategy system is being tested, please do not copy!

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CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
Trump has landed, Musk is the last one, it feels like taking your parents to visit your in-laws?
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
Recently, I've noticed that all the major exchanges have launched Pre-IPO markets??? So why was there a bunch of people criticizing @MSX_CN when they first started this Pre-IPO thing??? Now all exchanges, whether it's tokens or contracts, have it and you guys are praising it??? Really strange... To some extent, it also shows that the market is gradually recognizing: Participating on-chain in primary/Pre-IPO assets is itself part of the future of financial product innovation... Many innovations are like this. At the beginning, everyone sees "something unfamiliar"... Only when more and more people join does the industry start to realize its value... Now the whole industry is exploring in this direction, which is actually a good thing. At least it shows the market is moving towards a richer, more open asset system.
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
The staking rewards of $BILL have already reached 12,200 tokens, with an airdrop value of $200,000 and staking rewards worth over 2,000 U. The feeling of on-paper wealth is really good... Recently, I've seen quite a few people getting restless and wanting to short, so I still plan to watch the show. The situation with @billions_ntwk is very clear right now—if anyone dares to short, they definitely won't get away unscathed... There are still 6 months until unlocking, and without a 10x margin for hedging, there's simply no such thing as risk-free cashing out... So, I'll keep watching the show. The best approach is to wait. I had AI model analyze the extreme price prediction based on the unlocking time, and it says $2~3... The price ceiling depends on when the shorting funds run dry, and the trend reversal depends on when a large amount of retail funds go long. Clearly, this is no longer the project team controlling the market; there are proactive market makers who have figured out this supply-demand model operating behind the scenes... In other words, you might be anxious holding a bunch of locked tokens, but the project team might be even more anxious...😂
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
They say that once a child passes the 2-month fussing stage, it gets much easier, but in reality, there's fussing at 3 months, 4 months... endless fussing... My account is probably doomed now, the way I tweet is: Holding the phone in my left hand, painstakingly typing one letter at a time with my thumb, while my right hand pats the little brat's bottom like a Parkinson's patient... Can't stop, if I stop, they immediately cry... It's so hard...
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
Is it true this time, or is it different?
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
#OKX This Boost staking event is a must-join! 19% annualized yield, and the quota is only 20,000 USDT. It seems perfect for those financial pros with multiple accounts... Only 11.81 million USDT deposited, which means fewer than 600 people are freeloading on this stablecoin pool yield. That's unreasonable... Could it be that everyone has really moved to US stocks?
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
After two days of de-blackboxing, the entire strategy system finally stopped bleeding and stopped losing money. In the end, it all comes down to one sentence: The strategy decision layer must isolate AI! The strategy decision layer must isolate AI! The strategy decision layer must isolate AI! The work over the past two days was to implement the effects of various large prompt segments in Python, no longer allowing AI to touch any modules related to trading decisions... Because even if you let AI do the trading, it will still write a temporary strategy to trade on its own, sometimes even launching without doing a simple backtest... So rather than letting AI write it, it’s better to write it yourself. Over the past two days, I moved the ASR-VC strategy’s basic framework onto the server, and after running it for two days, it finally stopped losing money... Here’s a funny thing: there’s also a short-term strategy running in parallel in the system. This morning, I saw that out of 43 trades, the win rate was less than 40%. I quickly checked and found that last night when AI was modifying the code, it reversed an RSI limit parameter, so the strategy was opening reverse orders all night... I really am... But today it finally returned to normal. The entire strategy system strictly follows the logic of "cut losses short, let profits run." Now when you open #OKX, you can see a long list of profitable trades because losing trades don’t survive more than 4 hours before being automatically stopped out... I hope this comprehensive optimization can stabilize things. The Agent’s Memory.md has been completely overwhelmed and needs to be manually cleared every day, but Hermes is definitely much more stable than Openclaw!
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
I spent the last couple of days completely restructuring the entire system and wanted to share some new lessons learned: 1. When building a strategy system involving AI, for every deployed feature, you must first ask yourself: "Can this feature be implemented purely through code?" If a feature can be implemented purely through code, no matter how complex the logic is, you should avoid handing over decision-making to AI; For example, my current overall strategy system architecture is to first deploy a set of pure algorithmic quantitative strategies with high win rates and high profit-loss ratios but extremely low trading frequency. Backtesting results show fewer than 10 trades per year, but the data is excellent. The reason for the low trading frequency is that the strategy’s decision tree includes many filtering factors, so normal market conditions rarely trigger entry signals... Then I involve AI in decision-making, using account historical data and the strategy architecture to dynamically adjust the filter parameters, turning a pure algorithmic strategy into a flexible trader... Then problems arose. Although the AI’s prompt instructions were comprehensive, as the number of parameter iterations increased, the AI began to develop some self-reinforcing directional biases... For example, last time it adjusted the RSI range and found that the strategy’s win rate and profits improved. This change was then logged as an iteration experience for the next optimization. Gradually, the context became that no matter how the strategy performed, it would only modify one core parameter, and the adjustments became more and more extreme... Even though I added explanations for all exposed parameters in the global prompt, after running for a while each time, the AI’s attention would get stuck on one or two parameters and couldn’t break free... Therefore, I had to spend two days turning this part of the AI task—data collection, real-time analysis, and dynamic parameter tuning—into pure code logic. To adapt, the entire system required a lot of dependency development, which was completely unnecessary when AI was making decisions before, as it could pull data, search online, perform semantic analysis, and then draw tuning conclusions on its own... Still, without heavy AI involvement in decision-making, the system finally stabilized. So one thing is clear: for trading systems, hard-coded logic is ultimately superior to flexible large models! Currently, I have limited AI’s role to social sentiment analysis, trading asset collection (background checks and unlocking periods), and system monitoring. Having the Agent act as a secretary is far safer and more stable than having it act as a trader. So, if you’re still expecting to give AI a prompt and have it start making money for you, it’s better to forget it for now. Current large models can only execute pure algorithmic strategies with fixed parameters, essentially saving users the trouble of initial development; But the more AI occupies space in a system, the higher the black-box uncertainty becomes. Sometimes it’s even more stable to just find a signal provider to follow...
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
Yes, yes, yes... The American people understand stock market fluctuations just as the crypto community understands the pump-and-dump cycles... Sometimes I wonder, after Trump leaves office, will the US elect an extremely conservative president? After all, the last time Trump left office, Biden came in...
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
Let's not even talk about the CPI rebound, you even rebounded beyond expectations! G... what...? Self-comforting a bit, at least the dollar can rise, right?
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
Let's not even talk about the CPI rebound, you even rebounded beyond expectations! G... what...? Self-comforting a bit, at least the dollar can rise, right?
CryptoPainter
CryptoPainter
Burned 570 million Tokens in ten days, I think Hermes is quite economical…